Contents

1. The numbers: what Prime Day 2026 looks like in cardboard
2. Why cardboard dominance is actually good news
3. The overconsumption problem packaging can't fix alone
4. What every e-commerce business should take from this
5. Right-sizing: the single biggest lever on packaging waste
6. Sources

The numbers: what Prime Day 2026 looks like in cardboard

The BusinessWaste.co.uk projection is based on a 17% compound annual growth rate derived from Prime Day sales data going back to 2018, when Amazon sold roughly 100 million items. Last year's event — which ran for four days — generated 300 million item sales. This year's three-day event is projected to exceed that, suggesting that event duration has little bearing on total sales volume.

Amazon reported that in 2024, it used 20% fewer boxes on average thanks to its 'Amazon Day' consolidated delivery option. BusinessWaste.co.uk factored that reduction into its estimate of 280.8 million boxes. Using a medium box weight of 250g as a baseline estimate, the analysts arrived at 70,200 tonnes of cardboard — described as a "middling estimate" given that Amazon ships in three different box sizes.

"Amazon regularly shouts about its efforts to reduce packaging waste and it is great to see the retail giant using mostly card and paper, a far more sustainable alternative to plastic. However, it's hard to ignore the enormous scale of cardboard waste created by the e-commerce site."

Mark Hall, Cardboard Waste Expert, BusinessWaste.co.uk

Why cardboard dominance is actually good news

It's easy to look at 70,200 tonnes of cardboard and see a problem. But context matters. Amazon has reported that over half of its European deliveries now arrive in recyclable packaging — paper or cardboard — or with no packaging at all. The company has also stated it has prevented more than 4 million metric tonnes of packaging waste since 2015.

Cardboard is the right material for this purpose. It is kerbside recyclable across England under the Simpler Recycling framework, consistently rated Green or Amber under the Recyclability Assessment Methodology (RAM), and preferred over plastic by 72% of UK consumers according to the latest Pro Carton data. The problem is not that cardboard is being used — it is that the volume of consumption is generating waste on a scale that even a well-designed material struggles to absorb gracefully.

Amazon's shift away from plastic towards cardboard and paper is a genuine and measurable improvement. The sustainability challenge that remains is not material choice — it's volume and right-sizing.

The overconsumption problem packaging can't fix alone

Mark Hall's comment that Prime Day "encourages overconsumption" points at a structural issue that sits above packaging design. Flash sales events create condensed bursts of demand that logistics networks handle by defaulting to speed and volume over optimisation. The packaging that results is not necessarily poorly chosen — it is often poorly sized relative to the product inside it.

"If you do find yourself snagging some bargains, just make sure to sustainably dispose of any packaging."

Mark Hall, Cardboard Waste Expert, BusinessWaste.co.uk

Under EPR, packaging producers are now incentivised to minimise the weight and surface area of packaging placed on the market — because fees are calculated on a weight basis. A box that is twice the size needed for its contents is paying double the EPR fee it needs to, in addition to the wasted materials cost and the additional void fill required to make it safe.

What every e-commerce business should take from this

Amazon's scale makes its packaging numbers extreme, but the underlying dynamics apply to any business shipping physical products. The Prime Day analysis is a useful mirror for e-commerce operations of every size to hold up against their own packaging choices. A few key questions worth asking:

• Are your box sizes matched to your product dimensions, or are you defaulting to a small range of standard sizes that leave significant void space?
• Are you using void fill — loose fill, air pillows, paper — to compensate for oversized boxes that could simply be replaced with better-fitted ones?
• Do you know the RAM rating of each packaging format you currently use, and what EPR fee band that puts you in?
• Is your cardboard genuinely kerbside recyclable, or is it laminated, coated, or composited in a way that downgrades its recyclability rating?

Right-sizing: the single biggest lever on packaging waste

The most impactful thing most e-commerce businesses can do to reduce their packaging footprint is not switching materials — it's right-sizing. Matching box dimensions to product dimensions reduces cardboard consumption, eliminates the need for void fill, lowers shipping weight (and therefore cost and emissions), and reduces EPR fee liability. Here's how to approach it:

Looking to right-size your e-commerce packaging?

Priory Direct stocks cardboard boxes across a full range of sizes — from small postal boxes to large corrugated shippers — alongside paper void fill, padded envelopes, and recyclable mailers built for e-commerce dispatch.